Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV · POP 6,465,724 · EMP 3,136,190 · DATA GRADE A
Washington, DC
consensus exposure · range [54.6–56.3] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 99% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 56.0 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 56.3 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 54.6 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 54.9 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 55.5 |
| Consensus (mean) | 55.5 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| General and Operations Managers | 112,530 | $156,460 | 56.5 | |
| Software Developers | 69,060 | $154,930 | 87.1 | |
| Business Operations Specialists, All Other | 76,600 | $104,770 | 76.3 | |
| Management Analysts | 62,360 | $126,830 | 83 | |
| Retail Salespersons | 66,920 | $36,610 | 67 | |
| Lawyers | 46,840 | $195,190 | 72.6 | |
| Customer Service Representatives | 36,750 | $46,220 | 91.1 | |
| Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive | 37,010 | $53,660 | 89.8 | |
| Accountants and Auditors | 41,470 | $102,140 | 79.4 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 39,410 | $51,880 | 82.2 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Washington against any other metro — side by side.