Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA · POP 4,161,883 · EMP 2,086,210 · DATA GRADE A
Seattle, WA
consensus exposure · range [51.7–54.9] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 96% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 54.9 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 51.7 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 53.7 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 52.5 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 54.2 |
| Consensus (mean) | 53.4 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developers | 92,770 | $167,280 | 87.1 | |
| Retail Salespersons | 46,620 | $42,080 | 67 | |
| Business Operations Specialists, All Other | 38,800 | $101,920 | 76.3 | |
| Customer Service Representatives | 25,840 | $53,550 | 91.1 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 27,460 | $53,290 | 82.2 | |
| Registered Nurses | 39,900 | $128,260 | 48.9 | |
| Project Management Specialists | 26,910 | $130,380 | 71.6 | |
| Accountants and Auditors | 22,100 | $99,370 | 79.4 | |
| Cashiers | 30,470 | $44,210 | 54.8 | |
| Computer Systems Analysts | 19,050 | $133,690 | 87.5 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Seattle against any other metro — side by side.