San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA · POP 4,630,041 · EMP 2,373,920 · DATA GRADE A
San Francisco, CA
consensus exposure · range [52.1–55] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 97% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 55.0 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 54.1 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 52.1 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 52.8 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 54.5 |
| Consensus (mean) | 53.7 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software Developers | 69,030 | $186,640 | 87.1 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 37,590 | $52,000 | 82.2 | |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 29,980 | $96,960 | 94.1 | |
| Retail Salespersons | 39,460 | $43,850 | 67 | |
| General and Operations Managers | 43,520 | $149,990 | 56.5 | |
| Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists | 24,120 | $123,250 | 88.7 | |
| Cashiers | 38,250 | $41,270 | 54.8 | |
| Registered Nurses | 41,750 | $186,610 | 48.9 | |
| Accountants and Auditors | 25,170 | $110,730 | 79.4 | |
| Management Analysts | 23,560 | $126,730 | 83 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare San Francisco against any other metro — side by side.