Richmond, VA · POP 1,389,338 · EMP 660,350 · DATA GRADE A
Richmond, VA
consensus exposure · range [50.6–51.5] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 89% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 51.1 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 50.9 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 51.5 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 50.6 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 51.0 |
| Consensus (mean) | 51 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Salespersons | 16,210 | $33,580 | 67 | |
| Customer Service Representatives | 10,960 | $42,660 | 91.1 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 10,890 | $46,320 | 82.2 | |
| General and Operations Managers | 15,770 | $108,670 | 56.5 | |
| Cashiers | 14,460 | $30,350 | 54.8 | |
| Registered Nurses | 15,700 | $93,580 | 48.9 | |
| Software Developers | 7,680 | $132,120 | 87.1 | |
| Accountants and Auditors | 7,920 | $84,220 | 79.4 | |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and Travel | 5,710 | $61,510 | 94.1 | |
| Management Analysts | 6,340 | $95,660 | 83 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Richmond against any other metro — side by side.