Napa, CA · POP 132,949 · EMP 77,860 · DATA GRADE A
Napa, CA
consensus exposure · range [42.1–44.8] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 3% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 42.2 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 42.1 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 44.3 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 44.8 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 42.1 |
| Consensus (mean) | 43.1 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Salespersons | 2,150 | $40,780 | 67 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 1,230 | $52,000 | 82.2 | |
| Cashiers | 1,540 | $38,500 | 54.8 | |
| General and Operations Managers | 1,410 | $106,680 | 56.5 | |
| Registered Nurses | 1,610 | — | 48.9 | |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 1,930 | $37,130 | 39.7 | |
| Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing, Except Technical and Scientific Products | 790 | $100,460 | 88.3 | |
| Demonstrators and Product Promoters | 1,010 | $50,030 | 59.2 | |
| Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse | 3,520 | $44,370 | 16.7 | |
| Customer Service Representatives | 640 | $53,360 | 91.1 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Napa against any other metro — side by side.