Lawrence, KS · POP 120,920 · EMP 51,750 · DATA GRADE A

Lawrence, KS

51 /100

consensus exposure · range [49.4–53.9] across 6 methodologies

#47 of 393

more exposed than 88% of US metros

By methodology

IndexExposure
OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024)49.6
Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023)52.1
Microsoft AI applicability (2025)53.9
Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026)50.1
Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024)49.4
Consensus (mean)51

Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.

Secondary measures

55.7

payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones

24.9%

of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)

86.8%

of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)

Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030

2027 2035

Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.

Where the losses land — and your assumptions

Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).

Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).

Most exposed local occupations

OccupationJobsMedian wageExposure [range]
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 1,230 $42,630
89.8
Customer Service Representatives 1,090 $37,800
91.1
Retail Salespersons 1,430 $31,320
67
Cashiers 1,310 $29,270
54.8
Fast Food and Counter Workers 2,880 $28,320
24
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 630 $48,290
81.4
General and Operations Managers 850 $85,110
56.5
Waiters and Waitresses 1,190 $37,230
39.7
Software Developers 410 $104,990
87.1
Registered Nurses 700 $78,020
48.9

Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.

Compare Lawrence against any other metro — side by side.