Lombardia, IT · POP — · EMP 4,437,420 · DATA GRADE C
Lombardia, IT
ILO GenAI exposure index · 1-digit occupation data — coarse regional tier, not comparable with US/Canada scores
more exposed than 50% of EU regions
Secondary measures
occupation granularity — the EU census publishes only 9 broad ISCO groups per region. Treat scores as relative shading within Europe, not point estimates. Why
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (ILO GenAI index over ISCO major groups). Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).