Grants Pass, OR · POP 87,867 · EMP 30,540 · DATA GRADE B
Grants Pass, OR
consensus exposure · range [41.2–47.5] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 10% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 44.9 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 47.5 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 41.2 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 46.4 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 43.9 |
| Consensus (mean) | 44.8 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — close to the headcount measure
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade B)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Salespersons | 740 | $36,940 | 67 | |
| Cashiers | 760 | $34,080 | 54.8 | |
| Home Health and Personal Care Aides | 4,640 | $53,120 | 8.8 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 390 | $48,680 | 82.2 | |
| Teaching Assistants, Except Postsecondary | 560 | $38,140 | 54 | |
| Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks | 370 | $49,270 | 81.4 | |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 1,240 | $34,900 | 24 | |
| General and Operations Managers | 520 | $84,700 | 56.5 | |
| Registered Nurses | 540 | $106,710 | 48.9 | |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative Assistants | 300 | $49,430 | 86.3 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Grants Pass against any other metro — side by side.