Flagstaff, AZ · POP 144,368 · EMP 66,610 · DATA GRADE A
Flagstaff, AZ
consensus exposure · range [45.7–50.9] across 6 methodologies
more exposed than 48% of US metros
By methodology
| Index | Exposure |
|---|---|
| OpenAI task exposure (Eloundou et al. 2024) | 45.9 |
| Felten language-modeling AIOE (2023) | 48.2 |
| Microsoft AI applicability (2025) | 50.9 |
| Anthropic Economic Index observed usage (2026) | 47.9 |
| Eisfeldt et al. generative-AI exposure (2024) | 45.7 |
| Consensus (mean) | 47.7 |
Table 1. Where indices disagree, that disagreement is information: prediction-style indices (task ratings) and usage-based indices (observed AI conversations) measure different things. Methods §2.
Secondary measures
payroll-weighted exposure — higher than the headcount number: the exposed jobs are the better-paid ones
of workers are in occupations where ≥50% of tasks are LLM-exposed (Eloundou β; threshold-sensitive — note)
of area employment matched to scored occupations (grade A)
Scenario: if replacement-level AI arrives in 2030
Figure 1. Modeled displacement under the median preset (diffusion k=0.8, ceiling 0.75, automation share 0.45, friction lag 1.5y, attrition 3%/y). Solid: positions eliminated. The gap between gross and layoffs is natural attrition — speed of diffusion, not depth of exposure, determines layoffs. This is a scenario, not a forecast: adjust every assumption.
Where the losses land — and your assumptions
Positions eliminated by 2035 per occupation group, under the arrival year selected above. Drag any multiplier if you think we're wrong about a group — your model, your numbers. Multipliers scale that group's task exposure (×0 = immune, ×2 = double).
Table 3. Group exposure = employment-weighted mean task exposure (Eloundou β) over the group's local occupations. Bars use the same scenario engine as Figure 1 (median preset).
Most exposed local occupations
| Occupation | Jobs | Median wage | Exposure [range] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Salespersons | 2,150 | $36,440 | 67 | |
| General and Operations Managers | 2,180 | $77,740 | 56.5 | |
| Cashiers | 2,120 | $35,810 | 54.8 | |
| Waiters and Waitresses | 2,210 | $37,080 | 39.7 | |
| Registered Nurses | 1,570 | $100,780 | 48.9 | |
| Customer Service Representatives | 820 | $40,120 | 91.1 | |
| Office Clerks, General | 900 | $45,860 | 82.2 | |
| Fast Food and Counter Workers | 2,790 | $33,690 | 24 | |
| Receptionists and Information Clerks | 670 | $39,830 | 78.9 | |
| First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers | 630 | $61,640 | 79.3 |
Table 2. Ranked by exposure × local employment. Bands on the 0–100 occupation scale.
Compare Flagstaff against any other metro — side by side.